

| The Fuel That Fed The Subprime Meltdown Dozens of mortgage lenders declare bankruptcy in a matter of weeks. The market is filled with concerns of a major global credit crunch, which could affect all classes of borrowers. Central banks use emergency clauses to inject liquidity into scared financial markets. The real estate markets plummet after years of record highs. Foreclosure rates double year-over-year during the latter half of 2006 and in 2007. The reports sound intimidating, but what does all this mean?  We are currently knee-deep in a financial crisis that centers on the U.S. housing market, where fallout from the frozen subprime mortgage market is spilling over into the credit markets, as well as domestic and global stock markets. Read on to learn more about how the markets fell this far, and what may lie ahead. The Path to a Crisis Was this the case of one group or one company falling asleep at the wheel? Is this the result of too little oversight, too much greed, or simply not enough understanding? As is often the case when financial markets go awry, the answer is likely "all the above" Remember, the market we are watching today is a byproduct of the market of six years ago. Rewind back to late 2001, when fear of global terror attacks after Sept. 11 roiled an already- struggling economy, one that was just beginning to come out of the recession induced by the tech bubble of the late 1990s. In response, during 2001, the Federal Reserve began cutting rates dramatically, and the fed funds rate arrived at 1% in 2003, which in central banking parlance is essentially zero. The goal of a low federal funds rate is to expand the money supply and encourage borrowing, which should spur spending and investing. The idea that spending was "patriotic" was widely propagated and everyone - from the White House down to the local parent-teacher association - encouraged us to buy, buy, buy. It worked, and the economy began to steadily expand in 2002. Real Estate Begins to Look Attractive As lower interest rates worked their way into the economy, the real estate market began to work itself into a frenzy as the number of homes sold - and the prices they sold for - increased dramatically beginning in 2002. At the time, the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at the lowest levels seen in nearly 40 years, and people saw a unique opportunity to gain access into just about cheapest source of equity available. Investment Banks, and the Asset-Backed Security If the housing market had only been dealt a decent hand - say, one with low interest rates and rising demand - any problems would have been fairly contained. Unfortunately, it was dealt a fantastic hand, thanks to new financial products being spun on Wall Street. These new products ended up being spread far and wide and were included in pension funds, hedge funds and international governments. And, as we're now learning, many of these products ended up being worth absolutely nothing. A Simple Idea Leads to Big Problems The asset-backed security (ABS) has been around for decades, and at its core lies a simple investment principle: Take a bunch of assets that have predictable and similar cash flows (like an individual's home mortgage), bundle them into one managed package that collects all of the individual payments (the mortgage payments), and use the money to pay investors a coupon on the managed package. This creates an asset-backed security in which the underlying real estate acts as collateral. (For more insight, read Asset Allocation With Fixed Income.) Another big plus was that credit rating agencies such as Moody's and Standard & Poor's would put their 'AAA' or 'A+' stamp of approval on many of these securities, signaling their relative safety as an investment. The advantage for the investor is that he or she can acquire a diversified portfolio of fixed- income assets that arrive as one coupon payment. The Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) had been bundling and selling securitized mortgages as ABSs for years; their 'AAA' ratings had always had the guarantee that Ginnie Mae's government backing had afforded . Investors gained a higher yield than on Treasuries, and Ginnie Mae was able to use the funding to offer new mortgages. Widening the Margins Thanks to an exploding real estate market, an updated form of the ABS was also being created, only these ABSs were being stuffed with subprime mortgage loans, or loans to buyers with less-than-stellar credit. (To learn more about subprime, read Subprime Is Often Subpar and Subprime Lending: Helping Hand Or Underhanded?) Subprime loans, along with their much higher default risks, were placed into different risk classes, or tranches, each of which came with its own repayment schedule. Upper tranches were able to receive 'AAA' ratings - even if they contained subprime loans - because these tranches were promised the first dollars that came into the security. Lower tranches carried higher coupon rates to compensate for the increased default risk. All the way at the bottom, the "equity" tranche was a highly speculative investment, as it could have its cash flows essentially wiped out if the default rate on the entire ABS crept above a low level - in the range of 5 to 7%. All of a sudden, even the subprime mortgage lenders had an avenue to sell their risky debt, which in turn enabled them to market this debt even more aggressively. Wall Street was there to pick up their subprime loans, package them up with other loans (some quality, some not), and sell them off to investors. In addition, nearly 80% of these bundled securities magically became investment grade ('A' rated or higher), thanks to the rating agencies, which earned lucrative fees for their work in rating the ABSs. As a result of this activity, it became very profitable to originate mortgages - even risky ones. It wasn't long before even basic requirements like proof of income and a down payment were being overlooked by mortgage lenders; 125% loan-to-value mortgages were being underwritten and given to prospective homeowners. The logic being that with real estate prices rising so fast (median home prices were rising as much as 14% annually by 2005), a 125% LTV mortgage would be above water in less than two years. Leverage Squared The reinforcing loop was starting to spin too quickly, but with Wall Street, Main Street and everyone in between profiting from the ride, who was going to put on the brakes? Record-low interest rates had combined with ever-loosening lending standards to push real estate prices to record highs across most of the United States. Existing homeowners were refinancing in record numbers, tapping into recently earned equity that could be had with a few hundred dollars spent on a home appraisal. Meanwhile, thanks to the liquidity in the market, investment banks and other large investors were able to borrow more and more (increased leverage) to create additional investment products, which included shaky subprime assets. Collateralized Debt Joins the Fray The ability to borrow more prompted banks and other large investors to create collateralized debt obligations (CDO), which essentially scooped up equity and "mezzanine" (medium-to-low rated) tranches from MBSs and repackaged them yet again, this time into mezzanine CDOs. By using the same "trickle down" payment scheme, most of the mezzanine CDOs could garner an 'AAA' credit rating, landing it in the hands of hedge funds, pension funds, commercial banks and other institutional investors. Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), in which cash flows come from residential debt, and CDOs were effectively removing the lines of communication between the borrower and the original lender. Suddenly, large investors controlled the collateral; as a result, negotiations over late mortgage payments were bypassed for the "direct-to-foreclosure" model of an investor looking to cut his losses. However, these factors would not have caused the current crisis if 1) the real estate market continued to boom and 2) homeowners could actually pay their mortgages. However, because this did not occur, these factors only helped to fuel the number of foreclosures later on. Teaser Rates and the ARM With mortgage lenders exporting much of the risk in subprime lending out the door to investors, they were free to come up with interesting strategies to originate loans with their freed up capital. By using teaser rates (special low rates that would last for the first year or two of a mortgage) within adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM), borrowers could be enticed into an initially affordable mortgage in which payments would skyrocket in three, five, or seven years. As the real estate market pushed to its peaks in 2005 and 2006, teaser rates, ARMs, and the "interest- only" loan (where no principle payments are made for the first few years) were increasingly pushed upon homeowners. As these loans became more common, fewer borrowers questioned the terms and were instead enticed by the prospect of being able to refinance in a few years (at a huge profit, the argument stated), enabling them to make whatever catch-up payments would be necessary. What borrowers didn't take into account in the booming housing market, however, was that any decrease in home value would leave the borrower with an untenable combination of a balloon payment and a much higher mortgage payment. A market as close to home as real estate becomes impossible to ignore when it's firing on all cylinders. Over the space of five years, home prices in many areas had literally doubled, and just about anyone who hadn't purchased a home or refinanced considered themselves behind in the race to make money in that market. Mortgage lenders knew this, and pushed ever-more aggressively. New homes couldn't be built fast enough, and homebuilders' stocks soared. The CDO market (secured mainly with subprime debt) ballooned to more than $600 billion in issuance during 2006 alone - more than 10-times the amount issued just a decade earlier. These securities, although illiquid, were picked up eagerly in the secondary markets, which happily parked them into large institutional funds at their market-beating interest rates. |
| Subprime A classification of borrowers with a tarnished or limited credit history. Lenders will use a credit scoring system to determine which loans a borrower may qualify for. Subprime loans carry more credit risk, and as such, will carry higher interest rates as well. Approximately 25% of mortgage originations are classified as Subprime , Occasionally some borrowers might be classified as subprime despite having a good credit history. The reason for this is because the borrowers has elected to not provide verification of income or assets in the loan application process. The loans in this classification are called stated income and/or stated asset (SISA) loans or even no income/no asset (NINA) loans. Subprime Lender A type of lender that specializes in lending to borrowers with a tainted or limited credit history. Subprime lending is more concentrated in a smaller number of large lenders than prime lending. The subprime loan market is more tiered compared to the prime loan market, where terms and rates vary little between borrowers. Subprime lenders use a risk-based pricing system to calculate the terms of loans, including the interest rate, which they offer to borrowers with varying credit histories. The securities issued by subprime lenders tend to carry more credit risk but less interest rate risk than securities backed by prime loans. This is because subprime borrowers tend to have a shorter time horizon and fewer opportunities to refinance when interest rates fall. |
| Subprime Mortgage  A type of mortgage that is normally made out to borrowers with lower credit ratings. As a result of the borrower's lowered credit rating, a conventional mortgage is not offered because the lender views the borrower as having a larger-than-average risk of defaulting on the loan. Lending institutions often charge interest on subprime mortgages at a rate that is higher than a conventional mortgage in order to compensate themselves for carrying more risk.  Borrowers with credit ratings below 600 often will be stuck with subprime mortgages and the higher interest rates that go with those mortgages. Making late bill payments or declaring personal bankruptcy could very well land borrowers in a situation where they can only qualify for a subprime mortgage. Therefore, it is often useful for people with low credit scores to wait for a period of time and build up their scores before applying for mortgages to ensure they are eligible for a conventional mortgage. What is a subprime mortgage?  A subprime mortgage is a type of loan granted to individuals with poor credit histories (often below 600), who, as a result of their deficient credit ratings, would not be able to qualify for conventional mortgages. Because subprime borrowers present a higher risk for lenders, subprime mortgages charge interest rates above the prime lending rate. There are several different kinds of subprime mortgage structures available. The most common is the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), which initially charges a fixed interest rate, and then convert to a floating rate based on an index such as LIBOR, plus a margin. The better known types of ARMs include 3/27 and 2/28 ARMs. ARMs are somewhat misleading to subprime borrowers in that the borrowers initially pay a lower interest rate. When their mortgages reset to the higher, variable rate, mortgage payments increase significantly. This is one of the factors that lead to the sharp increase in the number of subprime mortgage foreclosures in August of 2006, and the subprime mortgage meltdown that ensued. Many lenders were more liberal in granting these loans from 2004 to 2006 as a result of lower interest rates and high capital liquidity. Lenders sought additional profits through these higher risk loans, and they charged interest rates above prime in order to compensate for the additional risk they assumed. Consequently, once the rate of subprime mortgage foreclosures skyrocketed, many lenders experienced extreme financial difficulties, and even bankruptcy. |
| Cracks Begin to Appear However, by the middle of 2006, cracks began to appear. New homes sales stalled, and median sale prices halted their climb. Interest rates - while still low historically - were on the rise, with inflation fears threatening to raise them higher. All of the easy-to-underwrite mortgages and refinances had already been done, and the first of the shaky ARMs, written 12 to 24 months earlier, were beginning to reset. Default rates began to rise sharply. Suddenly, the CDO didn't look so attractive to investors in search of yield. After all, many of the CDOs had been re-packaged so many times that it was difficult to tell how much subprime exposure was actually in them. The Crunch of Easy Credit It wasn't long before news of problems in the sector went from boardroom discussions to headline-grabbing news. Scores of mortgage lenders -with no more eager secondary markets or investment banks to sell their loans into - were cut off from what had become a main funding source and were forced to shut down operations. As a result, CDOs went from illiquid to unmarketable. In the face of all this financial uncertainty, investors became much more risk averse, and looked to unwind positions in potentially hazardous MBSs, and any fixed-income security not paying a proper risk premium for the perceived level of risk. Investors were casting their votes en masse that subprime risks were not ones worth taking. Amid this flight to quality, three-month Treasury bills became the new "must-have" fixed- income product and yields fell a shocking 1.5% in a matter of days. Even more notable than the buying of government-backed bonds (and short-term ones at that) was the spread between similar-term corporate bonds and T-bills, which widened from about 35 basis points to more than 120 basis points in less than a week. These changes may sound minimal or undamaging to the untrained eye, but in the modern fixed-income markets - where leverage is king and cheap credit is only the current jester - a move of that magnitude can do a lot of damage. This was illustrated by the collapse of several hedge funds. Many institutional funds were faced with margin and collateral calls from nervous banks, which forced them to sell other assets, such as stocks and bonds, to raise cash. The increased selling pressure took hold of the stock markets, as major equity averages worldwide were hit with sharp declines in a matter of weeks, which effectively stalled the strong market that had taken the Dow Jones Industrial Average to all-time highs in July of 2007. To help stem the impact of the crunch, the central banks of the U.S., Japan and Europe, through cash injections of several hundred billion dollars, helped banks with their liquidity issues and helped to stabilize the financial markets. The Federal Reserve also cut the discount window rate, which made it cheaper for financial institutions to borrow funds from the Fed, add liquidity to their operations and help struggling assets. The added liquidity helped to stabilize the market to a degree but the full impact of these events is not yet clear. Conclusion There is nothing inherently wrong or bad about the collateralized debt obligation or any of its financial relatives. It is a natural and intelligent way to diversify risk and open up capital markets. Like anything else - the dotcom bubble, Long-Term Capital Management's collapse, and the hyperinflation of the early 1980s - if a strategy or instrument is misused or overcooked, there will need to be a good shaking-out of the arena. Call it a natural extension of capitalism, where greed can inspire innovation, but if unchecked, major market forces are required to bring balance back to the system. What's Next? So where do we go from here? The answer to this question will center on finding out just how far-reaching the impact will be, both in the United States and around the world. The best situation for all parties involved remains one in which the U.S. economy does well, unemployment stays low, personal income keeps pace with inflation and real estate prices find a bottom. Only when the last part happens will we be able to assess the total impact of the subprime meltdown. Regulatory oversight is bound to get stiffer after this fiasco, probably keeping lending restrictions and bond ratings very conservative for the next few years. Any lessons learned aside, Wall Street will continue to seek new ways to price risk and package securities, and it remains the duty of the investor to see the future through the valuable filters of the past. with inflation and real estate prices find a bottom. Only when the last part happens will we be able to assess the total impact of the subprime meltdown. Regulatory oversight is bound to get stiffer after this fiasco, probably keeping lending restrictions and bond ratings very conservative for the next few years. Any lessons learned aside, Wall Street will continue to seek new ways to price risk and package securities, and it remains the duty of the investor to see the future through the valuable filters of the past. Subprime Lending: Helping Hand Or Underhanded? Subprime is a classification of loans offered at rates greater than the prime rate to individuals who are unable qualify for prime rate loans. This usually occurs when borrowers have poor credit and, as a result, the lender views them as higher risk.  Loan qualification is based on a number of factors including income, assets and credit rating. In most cases, subprime borrowers have questions marks surrounding them in one or more of these areas, such as a poor credit rating or an inability to prove income. For example, someone with a credit rating below 620 or with no assets will likely not qualify for a traditional mortgage and will need to resort to a subprime loan to gain the necessary financing. Read on to learn more about this type of lending and how it got its bad reputation. Subprime Vs. Prime In addition to having higher interest rates than prime-rate loans, subprime loans often come with higher fees. And, unlike prime-rate loans, which are quite similar from lender to lender, subprime loans vary greatly. A process known as risk-based pricing is used to calculate mortgage rates and terms - the worse your credit, the more expensive the loan. Subprime loans are usually used to finance mortgages. They often include prepayment penalties that do not allow borrowers to pay off the loan early, making it difficult and expensive to refinance or retire the loan prior to the end of its term. Some of these loans also come with balloon maturities, which require a large final payment. Still others come with artificially low introductory rates that ratchet upward substantially, increasing the monthly payment by as much as 50%. Borrowers often do not realize that a loan is subprime because lenders rarely use that terminology. From a marketing perspective, "subprime" is not an attractive term. (To learn more, read Subprime Is Often Subpar.) History The Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 and later liberalization of regulations gave lenders strong incentive to loan money to low-income borrowers. The Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 enabled lenders to charge higher interest rates to borrowers with low credit scores. Then, the Alternative Mortgage Transaction Parity Act, passed in 1982, enabled the use of variable-rate loans and balloon payments. Finally, the Tax Reform Act of 1986 eliminated the interest deduction for consumer loans, but kept the mortgage interest deduction. These acts set the onslaught of subprime lending in motion. Over time, businesses adapted to this changing environment, and subprime lending expansion began in earnest. While subprime loans are available for a variety of purchases, mortgages are the big-ticket items for most consumers, so an increase in subprime lending naturally gravitated toward the mortgage market. According to statistics released by the Federal Reserve Board in 2004, from 1994 to 2003, subprime lending increased at a rate of 25% per year, making it the fastest growing segment of the U.S. mortgage industry. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve Board cites the growth as a "nearly ten-fold increase in just nine years." The Good Subprime loans have increased the opportunities for homeownership, adding nine million households to the ranks of homeowners in less than a decade and catapulting the United States into the top tier of developed countries on homeownership rates, on par with the United Kingdom and slightly behind Spain, Finland, Ireland and Australia, according to the Federal Reserve. More than half of those added to the ranks of new homeowners are minorities. Because home equity is the primary savings vehicle for a significant percentage of the population, home ownership is a good way to build wealth. The Bad Subprime loans are expensive. They have higher interest rates and are often accompanied by prepayment and other penalties. Adjustable-rate loans are of particular concern, as the payments can jump dramatically when interest rates rise. (To learn more about adjustable rates loans, see Mortgages: Fixed-Rate Versus Adjustable-Rate and American Dream Or Mortgage Nightmare?) All too often, subprime loans are made to people who have no other way to access funds and little understanding of the mechanics of the loan. On the lending side, the rush to bring in new business can lead to sloppy business practices, such as giving out loans without requiring borrowers to provide documented proof of income and without regard to what will happen if interest rates rise. The Ugly Because subprime borrowers generally aren't favorable candidates for more traditional loans, subprime loans tend to have significantly higher default rates than prime-rate loans. When interest rates rise rapidly and housing values stagnate or fall, the ripple effects are felt across the entire industry. The borrowers' inability to meet their payments or to refinance (due to prepayment penalties) causes borrowers to default. As foreclosure rates rise, lenders fail. Ultimately, the investors that purchased mortgage-backed securities based on subprime loans also get hurt when the underlying loans default. Buyer Beware When used responsibly by lenders, subprime loans can provide purchasing power to individuals who might not otherwise have access to funds. While negative attention is often focused on the mortgage industry, particularly on subprime lenders, the borrowers themselves share some responsibility for the problems subprimes have caused in the market. In other words, borrowers should never sign papers for a loan they do not understand or have the ability to repay. Despite the fact that a significant segment of subprime borrowers default on their loans, the loans themselves are neither good nor evil. They are simply an economic tool. |


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